Evaluating Tinubu's Two years In Office

 

According to foreign affairs analysts, President Bola Tinubu's foreign policy has been a blend of continuity and innovation since he assumed office on May 29, 2023. While maintaining Nigeria's long-standing Afrocentric principles, his administration has also introduced a fresh approach dubbed the "4D Diplomacy Strategy" or "Tinubu Doctrine."


Traditionally, Nigeria's foreign policy since its independence on October 1, 1960, has prioritized African affairs. This approach has historically been structured around three concentric circles of priority: West Africa, followed by the broader African continent, and then the rest of the world. This framework is rooted in Nigeria's status as a dominant force in Africa and a "Big Brother" nation.

Reinforcing Afrocentrism with New Ambitions

Tinubu's foreign policy over the past two years is seen as a deliberate effort to strengthen this traditional Afrocentric stance while incorporating new ambitions. A notable focus has been on West Africa, particularly the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), and the African Union (AU). The administration's proactive and ambitious foreign policy aims to bolster Nigeria's global influence, reposition it as a continental superpower, and attract foreign investments.


In his inaugural address, President Tinubu clearly articulated his foreign policy objectives, emphasizing peace, stability, and collective prosperity within West Africa and the wider African continent. He stated, "Our primary foreign policy objective must be the peace and stability of the West African sub-region, and the African continent. We will retool our foreign policy to more actively lead the regional and continental quest for collective prosperity. We will work with ECOWAS, the African Union, and international partners to end extant conflicts, and to resolve new ones."

The "4D Diplomacy Strategy": A New Paradigm

A significant development in Tinubu's foreign policy has been the introduction of the "4D Diplomacy Strategy," a bold move that has garnered considerable attention from foreign policy observers. The "4D" acronym represents:


Democracy: This pillar emphasizes the promotion and defense of democratic principles within West Africa, across Africa, and globally. President Tinubu's firm initial stance against the military coup in Niger Republic, shortly after he became Chairman of the ECOWAS Authority of Heads of State and Government, exemplified this commitment. Although he later shifted to diplomatic pressure and sanctions, this demonstrated a careful balancing act between national interest and regional stability.


Development: This aspect of the strategy focuses on fostering Africa's development, reducing dependency, and capitalizing on emerging opportunities. It seeks to leverage the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to boost foreign trade and attract foreign direct investment into Nigeria.9 Economic diplomacy is a key component, aiming to drive economic growth through foreign trade and create economic opportunities for Nigerians by actively engaging in bilateral and multilateral partnerships.1


Demography: Recognizing Nigeria's large, youthful, and vibrant population, this pillar aims to harness its potential.1 The approach seeks to leverage Nigeria's demographic advantage as a source of human capital, a consumer market for national development, and a diplomatic strength. This involves creating initiatives and opportunities for young Nigerians and addressing challenges like unemployment, which can have foreign policy implications.


Diaspora: This approach acknowledges the crucial role of the Nigerian diaspora in the nation's economic growth. It seeks to tap into diaspora remittances for national economic development and engage with the Nigerian diaspora community worldwide. The strategy aims to leverage their skills, resources, and remittances, enhance Nigeria's global image, and improve consular services for Nigerians abroad.

Ministerial Endorsement and Strategic Implementation

Ambassador Yusuf Tuggar, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, has consistently affirmed the Tinubu administration's 4D foreign policy thrust, reiterating Nigeria's enduring Afrocentric focus. He explained that this is pursued through the traditional three concentric circles, with the ultimate goals of achieving economic growth, peace, and security within West Africa and the broader African continent. Tuggar highlighted that the 4Ds are being deployed to build alliances through diplomatic engagements and partnerships with other nations, multilateral institutions, and the diaspora community. He stated, "The new foreign policy outlook heralds a new era of regional stability and collective prosperity for the subregion and, indeed, Nigeria. Through these efforts, Nigeria can assume a stronger leadership role in resolving conflicts and driving economic growth across Africa."

Regional Integration and Counter-Terrorism Efforts

President Tinubu has consistently underscored his commitment to strengthening regional integration, particularly within ECOWAS. During ECOWAS' 50th Anniversary in Lagos, he reaffirmed Nigeria's dedication to sustaining the bloc, emphasizing its role as "a beacon of African unity." Former Nigerian Head of State, General Yakubu Gowon (rtd), and pioneer ECOWAS Commission President, Dr. Mohamed Ibn Chambas, have commended Tinubu's leadership in unifying the bloc, especially his diplomatic handling of the Niger coup.


At the continental level, President Tinubu has taken significant steps to address the escalating threat of terrorism and violent conflicts across the Sahel and other parts of Africa. He hosted a high-level African Counter-Terrorism Summit in Abuja, bringing together African leaders and international partners. The summit aimed to foster African-led solutions, strengthen regional responses, enhance cooperation, and address the root causes of terrorism. The President advocated for the establishment and strengthening of a regional Standby Military Force to curb terrorism, violent conflicts, and unconstitutional changes of government in Africa.

Global Economic Diplomacy and Investment Attraction

A central pillar of Tinubu's foreign policy at the global level is economic diplomacy, specifically attracting foreign investment for economic development. The President has actively promoted Nigeria as "open for business" through numerous strategic diplomatic trips, which have resulted in multi-billion dollar foreign investment commitments. These include significant deals with Indian firms, Indorama, Bharti Airtel, Jindal Steel, and increased agricultural interventions from the African Development Bank. Major investments have also been secured in deepwater oil production, gas exploration, mining, and digital and creative enterprises.


Furthermore, President Tinubu has bolstered the inherited Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline project, aiming to supply energy to approximately 400 million people across countries. This ambitious project, expected to be the world's longest offshore gas pipeline, holds immense potential for regional integration and economic opportunities.


The administration is also leveraging Nigeria's demography and diaspora potential through initiatives like the Diaspora Mortgage Scheme's $10 billion fund, designed to channel diaspora remittances into economic growth. The President has emphasized the importance of investing in young people and women, recognizing their vital role in ECOWAS's future stability and prosperity.

Elevating Nigeria's Global Presence

In line with his administration's focus on enhancing Nigeria's global visibility, President Tinubu announced the upcoming "Motherland Festival," a landmark global event aimed at showcasing Nigeria's rich heritage, dynamic creative industries, and vibrant energy to the world. UN Deputy Secretary-General Amina Mohammed has lauded Tinubu's foreign policy initiatives, noting the progress in reforms to stabilize the Nigerian economy and the proactive approach to addressing security challenges.


President Tinubu has also forged alliances and signed agreements with various countries, including China, the United Kingdom, the United States, India, and others, focusing on trade, investment, and cooperation in critical sectors. During his maiden outing at the UN General Assembly in September 2023, he urged the global community to prioritize Africa, affirm democratic governance, and address challenges such as terrorism, illicit mining, and climate change.31


Challenges and the Path Forward

While Tinubu's foreign policy has garnered praise for its proactive stance and clear objectives, some criticisms have emerged regarding its direct impact on the average Nigerian and potential strains on international relationships due to domestic policies. Analysts have pointed out the challenge of aligning foreign policy successes with prevailing domestic economic realities.

Nevertheless, President Tinubu has undeniably translated his inaugural promises into action, employing a flexible and assertive approach when necessary. His foreign policy has consistently prioritized regional stability, economic diplomacy, and harnessing Nigeria's demographic and diaspora strengths to enhance the nation's economic growth and global standing. The strategic focus on ECOWAS, the broader African continent, and then the rest of the world, remains a continuation and consolidation of Nigeria's traditional Afrocentric foreign policy principles, with Africa firmly at its core.